In 2023, the performance of existing single-family home sales in Florida has generally fallen short of the pre-pandemic transaction levels. Furthermore, throughout the year until August, Florida’s 2023 real estate transactions lagged behind those of 2022, though they have been gradually catching up. Notably, in September, closed sales of single-family homes experienced their first year-over-year increase in 2023, rising by over 6%.
Single-family home transactions slowed down more YoY in Sarasota County than Manatee in August. It isn’t very often that you see closed sales down, inventory up, and the median sales price rise materially. What I believe it is telling us is that the higher end of the market is relatively stronger now than it was last year when compared to the lower half of price points. The percentage of cash sales rising tends to reinforce that belief. The infographic below from Florida Realtors shows more detail from Sarasota County in August.
August was rather uneventful for single-family home sales in Manatee County. While closed transactions were up YoY, pending transactions were down. All that led to rather flat results in terms of both price and inventory across the county when compared to August of 2022. Overall, I continue to be pleased with the market overall as the balance between buyers and sellers is reasonable. The ultimate question is still around what the market will look like as we head into our busy season in a few months.
Zillow believes they are about to be. In its most recent home price forecast update, Zillow anticipates a 6.5% increase in U.S. home prices from July 2023 to July 2024, marking a slight upward revision from their previous estimate of 6.3% made last month. To provide some context, historical data from Case-Shiller reveals that U.S. home prices have typically seen an average annual increase of 5.5% since 1975.
Homebuilder confidence experienced its first decline this year in August, reflecting the challenges posed by a 7% mortgage rate and dwindling housing affordability. The recent report from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) revealed a 6-point drop in builder confidence from July, resulting in a reading of 50.