Originally, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) was bullish on a rebound for 2026 existing home sales, with an expected 14% increase in sales when compared to 2025. While there were a lot of drivers for that expectation, I believe two of the main ones were mortgage interest rate declines and pent-up demand from a few years of low sales.
As of June, the view of a 14% increase in 2026 has been reduced to 4%. Through the first part of this year, we haven’t seen a material decline in mortgage interest rates or a material increase in buyer demand. That said, median home prices have continued to rise, so affordability hasn’t really changed either.
I do believe that existing home sales will rebound to more “normal” levels; however, I have to agree that 2026 doesn’t look like it is going to be the year. We will inch closer, but there will still be a big gap at year end. Let’s hope for continued momentum towards the roughly 25% gap we have between current activity for existing home sales and normal activity.